Metaculus

Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.

Upgraded Tech Stack: In 2022, we rewrote nearly the entire Metaculus application, modernizing the Metaculus tech stack to support our 2023 product roadmap. We …Learn how Metaculus calculates scores for its forecasting questions using proper scoring rules based on the log score. Find out what are the Baseline, …The mean Brier score was 0.084 for Metaculus and 0.107 for Manifold. This difference was significant using a paired test. Metaculus was ahead of Manifold on 75% of the questions (48 out of 64). Metaculus, on average had a much higher number of forecasters; All code used for this analysis can be found here. Conflict of interest noteJoseph Robinette Biden Jr. is the incumbent US President after winning the 2020 election. He has stated multiple times his intention of running for re-election, particularly if the Republican nominee would be Donald Trump. A March 2022 poll by CNN found 52% of respondents expected Biden not to run for re-election, compared to 29% who predicted ...Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.In practice, Metaculus restricts binary predictions to be between 0.1% and 99.9%, and continuous pdfs to be between 0.01 and ~35, leading to the scores above. The empirical scores are based on all scores observed on all resolved Metaculus questions, as of November 2023. Note that the above describes the Baseline score at a single point in time.IJW. commented on Aug 30, 2023, 6:43 AM. If China wanted to make a move on Taiwan, they would probably do it late in a second Biden term in 2027-2028. Since he would be decrepit of old age by then. With build up stress of 2 terms of being president. And probably low on weapons stockpiles due to Ukraine. The IMF forecasted in June 2022 that the US would narrowly avoid a recession in 2022 and 2023. IMF's Nigel Chalk said that an economic shock, If large enough, could push the United States into a recession, but it would likely be short and shallow with a modest rise in unemployment. In June 2022, Michael Kiley at the US Federal Reserve made a ...

Metaculus is strongly considering organizing an annual AGI benchmarking event. Once a year, we’d run a benchmark or suite of benchmarks against the most generally intelligent AI systems available to us at the time, seeking to assess their generality and the overall shape of their capabilities. We would publicize the event widely among the AI ...In the AI Progress Essay Contest, we open the floor for investigations of predictions regarding the future of AI, especially as it relates to the prospects, timing and impacts of potentially transformative advanced AI systems. Our aim is for systematic thinkers to engage with the wealth of AI forecasts that Metaculus has built up over the years.2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ...Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as Yes if prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If this has not happened before January 1, 2050, this ...For the purposes of this question, US involvement will be understood as either (1) any US military personnel directly planting explosives on Nord Stream or (2) a US government entity directing a foreign party to do so. The results of the investigation must be made public and confirmed by a credible media source for this question to resolve as Yes.Tutorial 1: Basics. Welcome to the Metaculus Tutorials! These are a set of interactive exercises designed to get you up and running in predicting the future as accurately as possible. You can do as much or as little as you like. Along with valuable understanding, you'll also get points and achievements for completing the tutorial. Metaculus is ...Jgalt. provided an information source on Mar 21, 2022, 1:10 PM. CNBC: Elon Musk says SpaceX will hopefully launch first Starship orbital flight in May. “We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test,” Musk tweeted in response to CNBC. 3.

Tutorial 1: Basics. Welcome to the Metaculus Tutorials! These are a set of interactive exercises designed to get you up and running in predicting the future as accurately as possible. You can do as much or as little as you like. Along with valuable understanding, you'll also get points and achievements for completing the tutorial. Metaculus is ... This question will resolve as Yes if the next Russian leader following Vladimir Putin expresses their disapproval of the February 2022 invasion of ukraine, in word or deed, by doing any of these: Publicly stating that the Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a mistake (or a crime). Ordering a withdrawal of the Russian forces from the majority ...2x Entrepreneur. Tech executive. Traveler, foodie, relentless optimizer. Values-driven… · Experience: Effective Institutions Project · Education: New York University · Location: Santa Monica ...These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution. The Community Prediction was hidden for 1 hour, and revealed on Dec …

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Forecasting Asset Prices. There are many questions on Metaculus about the behavior of asset prices on financial markets. Some of these questions can be quite difficult to answer using intuitive judgment. As an example, take this question (on which the community forecast may need some refreshing as of the time of publication of this notebook ...Mar 3, 2023 · The mean Brier score was 0.084 for Metaculus and 0.107 for Manifold. This difference was significant using a paired test. Metaculus was ahead of Manifold on 75% of the questions (48 out of 64). Metaculus, on average had a much higher number of forecasters; All code used for this analysis can be found here. Conflict of interest note The Metaculus Journal publishes essays on topics in science, mathematics, technology, policy, and politics—all fortified by testable predictions. meticulous: [adjective] marked by extreme or excessive care in the consideration or treatment of details.

Metaculus is strongly considering organizing an annual AGI benchmarking event. Once a year, we’d run a benchmark or suite of benchmarks against the most generally intelligent AI systems available to us at the time, seeking to assess their generality and the overall shape of their capabilities. We would publicize the event widely among the AI ...Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.This dataset is sourced from high school math competitions, such as the AMC 10, AMC 12, and AIME. State-of-the-art Transformers such as GPT-3 pre-trained only on text perform poorly on problems from the MATH dataset (4). The best performance achieved so far by GPT-3 is an overall accuracy of 6.9%, with less than 8.8% accuracy on any subject. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis … The Cryonics Insitute, founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their about page. A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In fact, IJW. commented on Aug 30, 2023, 6:43 AM. If China wanted to make a move on Taiwan, they would probably do it late in a second Biden term in 2027-2028. Since he would be decrepit of old age by then. With build up stress of 2 terms of being president. And probably low on weapons stockpiles due to Ukraine.Jun 15, 2021 · The Nuclear Risk Tournament: This now consists entirely of calibration questions that close by December 31, 2023 and have resolution dates no later than January 31, 2024. The original prize money of $2,500 (plus donations) is now entirely devoted to this tournament. You can find the questions and leaderboard below. Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is the incumbent US President after winning the 2020 election. He has stated multiple times his intention of running for re-election, particularly if the Republican nominee would be Donald Trump. A March 2022 poll by CNN found 52% of respondents expected Biden not to run for re-election, compared to 29% who predicted ...

The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was "seven minutes to midnight." The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of ...

Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not …What is Metaculus? Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine that brings together a global reasoning community and keeps score for …McBride declined to say how much Iridium is paying Relativity per launch, but she said Iridium got a “good price” that was lower then Relativity’s advertised launch price of $12 million per Terran 1 mission. The max advertised payload for the Terran 1 is 1,250 kg to LEO; the list price of $12m per launch gives …I chose all questions from the Metaculus Forecasting AI Progress that have already been resolved and have more than 5 upvotes. This cutoff is ultimately arbitrary but I felt like many questions below it were confusing or already answered by other predictions. In total this leaves 22 questions that I put into four categories: compute, arxiv ... 2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ... What is Metaculus? Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine that brings together a global reasoning community and keeps score for …Bio. I'm a researcher at MIT's Computer Science and AI lab, Associate Director of Epoch, an amateur forecaster and a Metaculus admin (since 2018). I sometimes organize forecasting efforts on Computing and AI. Please tag me if edits or resolutions are in order, or if you'd like me to review pending questions!The science. Online prediction markets are an extension and specific use of the “efficient markets hypothesis” in investing, in which everyone’s …

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Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Jun 13, 2011 · 2x Entrepreneur. Tech executive. Traveler, foodie, relentless optimizer. Values-driven… · Experience: Effective Institutions Project · Education: New York University · Location: Santa Monica ... 2x Entrepreneur. Tech executive. Traveler, foodie, relentless optimizer. Values-driven… · Experience: Effective Institutions Project · Education: New York University · Location: Santa Monica ... Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Project Summary. The Keep Virginia Safe Tournament was a joint effort between Metaculus and the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) Questions were developed collaboratively between the partners in order to obtain insights that would maximize usefulness to policy makers. Questions spanned 4 focus areas, …This question will resolves as Yes if, at any time between November 1, 2021 to January 1, 2025, a majority of U.S. IC organizations that favor either the natural origin or lab leak hypotheses are said to favor the explanation that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a lab in Hubei. This means that only the IC organizations that expressly favor one ...Aug 1, 2023 · On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence … 2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ... Leaderboards. Learn more about Metaculus Medals. Duration: Time Period: Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. ….

Mar 29, 2018 · While Metaculus has decided not to enter this competition full-fledged (since it would distract from out own focus), we have set up the machinery to download questions and make predictions, and will put some live on Metaculus that we think might be of interest to our community. We'll then feed back the Metaculus prediction to the competition. Metaculus collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. Suggest a new figure. On this page, comment with your suggestions for new public figures you would like to see Metaculus track, and provide other feedback on this experimental tool.This question will resolve as Yes if the next Russian leader following Vladimir Putin expresses their disapproval of the February 2022 invasion of ukraine, in word or deed, by doing any of these: Publicly stating that the Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a mistake (or a crime). Ordering a withdrawal of the Russian forces from the majority ...By Peter Mühlbacher, Research Scientist at Metaculus, and Peter Scoblic, Director of Nuclear Risk at Metaculus. Metaculus is a forecasting platform where an active community of thousands of forecasters regularly make probabilistic predictions on topics of interest ranging from scientific progress to geopolitics. …Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …Metaculus collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. Suggest a new figure. On this page, comment with your suggestions for new public figures you would like to see Metaculus track, and provide other feedback on this experimental tool.Donald Trump has been officially removed or blocked from the general election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office (President, Senate, House of Representatives) under the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The removal or block is confirmed through official state government announcements, court decisions, … Metaculus, [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1], [text-1-1]